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| Dr. Stephen Akintayo |
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| Kwankwaso |
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| Peter Obi |
How 3rd Force can win 2023 Presidential Elections- Dr. Stephen Akintayo.
One of the most ignorant statements I have heard people make is, "Dr. Stephen Akintayo, face your business and leave politics to those who do it best. What do you know about politics?"
Careless and loose talks like this is the reason Nigeria is where it is today. Even Nigerian Churches are coming to the party late.
Religion and politics are twins, the same way business and politics are cousins. A politician's singular act can either grow my business or kill it, and you think I shouldn’t care about such process?
How do you think I have been able to lead an organization of 300 staff without understanding politics. Leading a great business is the cousin of leading a nation.
Politics is simply leadership via popularity. Politics is about the process of electing and the process of servicing the electorate.
I hope that we all now know that there is no better people who should talk about politics than entrepreneurs, because even in developed nations like U.S. and U.K., you will see that everyone is involved in the conversation of how they are governed, particularly entrepreneurs.
Seeking elective position however is another thing all together, as that is an aspect of politics I am not interested in. I was taught politics since I was a baby. I love politics and I intend to be more politically vocal in the years to come.
I cannot contest for an elective office because I do not support the type of money politics we play in Nigeria, and I can’t afford such. I cannot pay anyone to serve them not even when I would have lost so much by retiring from my business to contest.
However, to the Elephant in the room, the 2023 general elections, the two political parties have major flaws that might make them lose 2023 presidential election if the 3rd Force chooses to become selfless and carry out this strategies;
1. PDP started zoning since 1998 and suddenly forgot their source. The reason for PDP losing the 2015 election was the feeling in PDP that President Jonathan from South-South technically had served for almost 8 years and should not go for a second term, rather allow a Northern candidate.
Meanwhile, those who started the new PDP were practically all Northerners from Alhaji Atiku to Saraki, and others.
To have chosen a Northern candidate after a Northerner under APC performed so poorly is due to faulty calculations by PDP, and 2023 result will prove me right or wrong.
A divided nation like this cannot try to fill in a Northerner again. If unity is indeed what we all seek, if Buhari had performed well, no one will care if you bring another competent Northerner, because Buhari would have united Nigerians so well.
2. APC is also flawed because their two most popular candidates are from South West. If a South-western politician ruled for 8 years in the person of Ex-President Obasanjo and another South-western person did 8 years as a Vice President in the person of Prof. Osinbajo, it is not just to present a Tinubu or Osinbajo in 2023.
What if APC filled in Mr. Onu or Dave Umahi? The gravity of their 8 years failure as a party and the lack of popularity of the two in the South will still not make them lose.
3. South East has never had a most popular candidate like Peter Obi. The entire Southern elite loves Peter Obi! Infact, Afenifere which is a political pressure group for South West is backing Peter Obi for 2023 because he represents what the Southern elite see as good political leadership.
You may claim his popularity is on Twitter, but the Twitter generation is now of voting age and if you filled in their kind of candidate, they will vote massively for such person and that’s 20 million votes guaranteed.
It also means that Diaspora funds is guaranteed for Peter Obi and many in Diaspora will travel home just to vote. This is why a Prof. Pat Utomi should step down for Peter Obi to help create a Third Force.
Kwankwanso is also a very powerful third force who has massive love from North West and the entire North at large. He is a grass root politician whose only weakness in 2023 is the fact that the incumbent is from the same zone as he is, and even the Northern elite feel other Northern zones like North East should produce the next president anytime North has a shot at it again.
How can these two 3rd Force win?
My recommendation is that Labour Party and Kwankwanso's Party merge in such a manner that Peter Obi gets the president slot and Kwankwanso as the Vice President. This will look like the Unity ticket that has what it takes to heal Nigeria and the competence to lead right.
It will be a strong presidency like the Obasanjo/Atiku regime. It was a tough one between 1999 and 2003, but that’s still the highest GDP growth era in Nigeria's history till date.
As powerful as this arrangement is, it might never work because Kwankwanso may never be willing to become anyone's Vice, especially now that Atiku has PDP ticket and Heaven did not fall.
Kwankwanso will feel he is more popular in the North and with a good Southern Vice, he can win it. If Kwankwanso continues as a presidential candidate, he will not win and would have hurt the chances of North in getting the 2023 presidency as he would have split the Northern vote so much that Atiku will not have any tangible vote from the North and South will not vote him overwhelmingly either.
If Peter Obi/Kwankwanso merge, they will need to pull all votes of APC and PDP primaries together to join force with them to take the center.
When Governors of APC and PDP see that the candidature of Obi/Kwankwanso gains ground, many will be willing to secretly tell their supporters to vote their party for Governorship and vote Obi/Kwankwanso for Presidency and vow to decamp after the general elections.
Many PDP governors did that against Jonathan. They remained in PDP so as to win the state elections but were Buhari's sympathizers.
The young elite will excitingly follow Obi/Kwankwanso ticket and you will have the 2015 excitement amongst young people come again. What PDP did will cause voter apathy, some youth would have been excited to vote for Wike if he had gotten the ticket.
If Tinubu wins APC primaries, a lot of the #EndSARS campaigners and youth in general will not feel excited to vote as well. Osinbajo will generate excitement amongst the youth but nothing will give the kind of joy like Obi/Kwankwanso's ticket.
In conclusion, all the above is fantasy and as many of you have said, I am just a business man, what do I know about politics? 😂
After devotion and breakfast with Ex-President Obasanjo last week Tuesday, I am confident that God will take over 2023 elections, and there shall be peace in this nation.
I love you all!
Dr. Stephen Akintayo.
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